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Assessing Risks when Planning Transitions in the NDPIV

Kampala: Tuesday, 23 July 23, 2024.  The National Planning Authority (NPA) has received a presentation to inform planning for risk analysis and management to guide the formulation of the National Development Plan (NDPIV) at Planning House.

The presentation was made by Mr. Aaron Atteridge, a consultant with the World Bank.

In a meeting Chaired by the NPA Director for Development Planning, Dr Asuman Gulooba, Mr Atteridge informed NPA that the Just Transition approach is a work in progress, noting that it aids understanding and managing risks and costs created by structural changes.

He informed NPA that the approach is tailored to Uganda and contains principles that guide planning so that changes promoted by the national development plan do not result in hardship or other significant problems for certain groups in the Ugandan population.

The framework provides for a six-step process to be followed by Ministries and government Agencies to assess transition risks and costs, and to identify actions to manage unforeseen circumstances. Especially in the formulation of the NDP Programme Implementation Action Plans (PIAPs) and sector strategies as well as cross cutting plans for instance the Climate Change Plan or the Green Growth Development Strategy.

The framework proposes the need to consider understanding the transition, the impacts and vulnerabilities and why, the coping mechanisms or strategies among groups, forging partnerships and securing support across government for the approaches’ strategies, devising strategies to among others, reducing any hardships created by the changes and finally, implementing the framework measures and monitoring their effectiveness.  The framework also gives due consideration to employment, social, economic, environment and vulnerable groups.

The framework comes at a critical time when NPA is working with government MDAs to develop the NDPIV.

Previously, the third National Development Plan that was launched in 2020, with the goal of increasing household incomes and the quality of life of Ugandans experienced difficulty during implementation due to the, the COVID-19 pandemic and other shocks such as disasters including locusts and floods, and the Ukrainian war effects. Hence the need for more risk planning to aid seemless implementation of the NDPIV.

The NDPIV is the first plan in the second half of the implementation of Uganda Vision 2040, the first Plan during the implementation of Government’s Strategy to grow Uganda’s economy ten-fold and last Plan during the implementation of the Global Agenda 2030 for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Consequently, the Plan is being developed to respond to unique circumstances, exploit available opportunities to fast track the realization of the desired socio-economic transformation aspirations towards the achievement of the qualitative leap.

The goal of the NDPIV is to Achieve higher household income and employment for sustainable social economic transformation while the theme is Sustainable industrialization for Inclusive Growth, Employment and Wealth Creation.

The objectives of the NDPIV are;

  1. To sustainably increase production, productivity and value addition in agriculture, industry, minerals, Oil & Gas, tourism, ICT and financial services.
  2. To enhance human capital development along the entire life cycle
  3. To support the private sector to drive growth and create jobs
  4. To build and maintain strategic sustainable infrastructure in Transport, housing, energy, water, industry and ICT.
  5. To strengthen good governance, security, and the role of the state in development.
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